Risk Assessment of Dike Based on Risk Chain Model and Fuzzy Influence Diagram

For the risk assessment of flood defense, a comprehensive understanding factors affecting dike failure is essential. Traditional methods are mostly based on experts’ experience and focus just one type mode defensive structures. The resources, including analytical non-analytical factors, were summarized firstly according to general dikes. uncertainty resources that affect safety can be quantified by membership degree. Hence, fuzzy influence diagram mathematics was proposed assess We evaluated multi-failure modes at same time diagram. Taking as an example, expected value 6.25%. Furthermore, chance damage this “very unlikely” descriptive term Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC). evaluation result obtained probabilistic value, which enabled intuitive perception Therefore, we provided some reasonable suggestions for project management regular maintenance. Since method account uncertainties, it well suited dikes with obvious uncertainties.